Transactions and house prices could fall across the country in the event of a no-deal Brexit, business advice firm KPMG has warned.
It says that the average price drop would be 6%, but could be as high as 20%.
It is forecasting that London and Northern Ireland would be most affected by price falls, dropping 7% and 7.5% respectively, with Wales and the east midlands least affected, each falling 5.4%.
KPMG says that while it expects the price correction to be milder than the crash of 2008, a “further shock to buyer confidence could tip the overall market into a much deeper slump”.
However, even if there is a deal, KPMG says house prices will still fall in some areas – by 4.7% in London and by 2.2% in Northern Ireland. It believes house prices would be largely unaffected elsewhere, and go up in Scotland and the north-west.
The firm also believes that sales volumes will be more affected by a no-deal Brexit than prices.
Jan Crosby, head of housing at KPMG, said: “Transaction volumes will likely fall much more than prices.”
The Bank of England has modelled a possible 30% fall in house prices in a worst case scenario following a no-deal Brexit.
Comments (8)
#projectfear
The world wouldn’t stop even if it did, while those trying to sell today may see a loss on their capital value, assuming they are getting out of the housing market, the majority would win? Most sellers are buyers and adds some weight to FTB affordability? I don’t see this being a real problem for the majority of the public, probably welcomed but property investors would need to weather the storm till it all settled down and recovered, …… as it always does…. life will continue.
This should ensure the fence sitting continues.
Transactions and house prices across the UK could increase in the event of a No Deal Brexit, business advice from XYMG has postulated.
It says that the average price increase could be as much as 100% as buyers, freed from the shackles of uncertainty, jump into an under-supplied market causing prices to spiral upwards at an unprecedented rate not seen since the late 1980’s.
What computer model generates this negativity? Don’t worry about Brexit – be more concerned about a Trotsky government led by Jeremy Corbyn et al. Then you’ll see property market falls that will make 2008 look like a fun time.
There’s that magic word again “could”….hopefully this negative Brexit malarkey will go much the same as the Millennium bug hysteria.
Fantastic news !
Every prediction made over the past 3 years by the so called experts has been wrong. Good times to come 🙂
With the millennium bug however there was a huge global workload to make sure it never turned into an issue… do you really think we are as prepared…