City analyst Jefferies has become the latest analyst to comment on the ‘portal wars’ market.
In its report to investors on Zoopla, published yesterday, the firm reiterated its ‘buy’ rating on the portal.
Using colourful language, it said: “Zoopla has seen more share price falls than gains of late, most of which we believe are due from the perceived threat of Agents’ Mutual, which like hurricane Gonzalo has been causing a lot of disruption of late.
“However in our view Agents’ Mutual is more like Gonzo, the playful but ultimately harmless muppet.”
The report is damning of Agents’ Mutual, although it does concede that for estate agents, “the investment case of AM is impressive, a co-operatively agent owned portal to challenge the power of Rightmove and Zoopla, breaking their stranglehold on listings and a putting stop to ever increasing subscription rates”.
However, it says that Agents’ Mutual has made a “key mistake” in “courting the wrong customer base”.
It goes on: “It is not the estate agents who ultimately choose where to spend their marketing dollars, but the sellers of the homes themselves. Unless homesellers want to see their home advertised on AM, we believe it will struggle to gain a following.”
It queries whether Agents’ Mutual is a “failed catalyst”.
The analyst states that “AM has reached the magic number of support from 4,000 branches, the point at which those agents who, in good faith, signed letters of intent should now sign their contracts”.
But it says “at the time of writing AM has not issued any press releases about the speed and success of converting these letters of intent into contracts”.
Jefferies estimates “that around 100 UK estate agency firms representing 1,400 branches have signed contracts with Agents’ Mutual”.
The report asks: “Will homebuyers rush to view a portal which lists properties from less than 8% of the UK’s estate agency branches, or will they stick to Zoopla and Rightmove?”
Jefferies has set a share price target for Zoopla of 325p as against its closing price last night of 214.50p when it was up 13p (6.5%) on the day.
The analyst adds that “the main risks to our estimates are shocks to the UK housing market which impact the profitability of UK estate agents and UK Housebuilders.
“There are also risks that our assessment of the threat of Agents’ Mutual may be wrong.”
The report also says that Agents’ Mutual is making a lot of noise – “and we note that it is often empty vessels which make the most noise”.
Noting that the highly successful Foxtons – which, coincidentally, issued a profits warning this morning**– has not signed up to Agents’ Mutual, it likens its ambition to disrupt the main portals to a challenger search engine trying to disrupt Google “but on a platform where you can only search for terms beginning with the letters A, B or C”.
Jefferies also criticises Agents’ Mutual’s five-year fixed-price contracts, saying this may mean it does not have the budget to keep pace with technological developments: “With fixed prices, in our view, AM runs the risk of building in obsolescence.”
The Jefferies report follows two others this week, reported yesterday on Eye.
The Exane BNP Paribas story is here
The Credit Suisse story is here
The Jefferies report is here
* Agents’ Mutual closes its current Gold membership offer tomorrow, Friday, October 24.
** Foxtons issued a profits warning this morning, based on slowing volumes of London residential property transactions. It sent its shares plummeting by some 16%.
Comments (78)
Come on you lot get real.
Zoopla have been trying to get a foothold in the portal market for the last 6 years and have had a budget of millions to spend. They've had injections in excess of £30million from private investors and investment funds (Octopus etc) and for the last 3 years have had a turnover in excess of £40million a year. They then had there stock market listing which gave another massive injection of cash and yet they still only have a 21% market share of the UK portal market after 6 years. This is because the public still consider RM to be the portal to look at and vendors want their home on this portal whether we like it or not! I would love to believe that AM will work but its a pipe dream and those agents that go with it will find after 6 to 12 months they are losing a high percentage of instructions by not being on RM and ZPL and will then want out or will want AM to change the articles so they can go on all 3 portals then you've just created another advertising spend and a minor portal that will never get past 3rd place at best. Just think about it logically and sensibly without your rose coloured spectacles on!!! Call me a pessimist if you wish but I'm just being a realist as opposed to a fantasist.
Hey jmeapps01….. nothing would have ever been discovered, invented or changed if we just accepted status quo….. I'm fine with your opinion…. and obviously you accept I and others have a different opinion….. I and others in support of AM don't say you are wrong however you simply cannot say you are right?…. it's opinion… however I and many, many others have decided to invest, to take the journey and see what happens…. I would rather try a real alternative with genuine intentions otherwise no new estate agents would ever go into business as all the others rule the market?…..and there is no point trying?…… the small shop always loses to Tesco etc?….. as we see, there is always the possibility of change, the possibility of better, the possibility that the public take a different view….. you pop along to Tesco and tell them that it's all a dream and they are still No 1?…. that the public/their customers didn't turn in a different direction!
Sadly, I must sign off as the little amount of my own free time is taken up jousting on here instead of relaxing. "Tally Hoooo…. bandits at 9 o'clock Ginger!"
Fair comment GPL just an opinion. I hope it works for you and your competition don't do anything terribly dastardly and use your future downscaled and limited portal marketing against you , then again i'm sure they are all dreadfully good fellows and wouldn't even consider such shenanigans! TTFN
Apologies for repeating myself but………the problem OTM will have is whilst there is more stock on RM & Z there will be no USP to make it standout.
No matter how much talking the Agents who list on OTM do to their vendors it will struggle to hold buyers attention if OTM has less properties on offer than other more established portals.
And there's the rub… so the public cannot look on Wrongmove only for all the property and they can't look on Zippy only for all the property?….. because both don't have all the property?….. so OTM will of course not have all the property on day 1, week 1, month 1 etc… I just fail to understand why you think that the buying public won't look elsewhere…. the public are not monkeys to the Darling Duo…. if traction, online marketing, tv advertising etc is so powerful why are there 2 Big Portals?…. not 1?…. don't kid yourself that it's all about how big your marketing spend is…. the power of the estate agents promoting Wrongmove and Zippy seems to have been swept away as it suits the Duo to take all the credit for their market profile…. forgive me L*rd I and many, many others are responsible for promoting the Duo….. so, the fact that my displays, schedules, website, for sale boards, letters etc etc etc will no longer promote them and will promote OnTheMarket!…. it may be small beer to some however it seemed to matter last time! The fact that my Wrongmove Rep gave me their Branded Pens on her last visit?…. really, it's all online, online, online?…… don't just follow the Pied Pipers…. The North Pole, Everest, The Moon?…. not just the preserve of the one! If AM becomes the No 1 so be it however I accept that it is not a straightforward journey, neither were the 3 other mentioned.
Agents not uploading to RM or Z first and advertising "Exclusive to OTM" for the first 14 days or so of marketing……… That would become pretty "Unique" I would say!
Ric – Would be interesting if that happened. Personally not sure it would though. Nobody seems to be looking at the consumer journey here to me. If Mr Buyer goes on to RM and searches an area and hardly any properties return in the search – he will look elsewhere. If the same happens on Z – he will look elsewhere. Then he finds OTM through Google (I don't really think their marketing budget is going to be enough to raise wide awareness in the early days). Lo and behold Mr Buyer finds all the property for sale in his local area on OTM. Which site will Mr Buyer return to in the future? That's the USP but my theory is flawed because not every Agent is committed to OTM. Now if they were it could be such a different picture. As it stands the market will split, in terms of site content, and Mr Buyer will continue using what they know best. If RM stays as strong as it is now in respect of stock listed in any given area then it will remain the first place people go to because that's what they know. If OTM has only got 40% of the property in any given area then it will be an also ran because it won't be offering the choice that Mr Buyer wants and Mr Buyer can still find a bigger choice somewhere else. The stock is the USP for the Agents and conversely the achilles heel for RM/Z.
The sword fighting between Zippy & Wrongmove demonstrated that their portal popularity is geographically dependent and is clearly influenced also by agent and public/client choice. So, yes, the market is already split and will split further hence the Darling Duo's being driven furiously towards protecting their market share. Once again I can only state that we have arrived at this scenario because of the Darling Duo's ever increasing search for profit…. and the shining spotlight on Agents Mutual is the intention to provide an online portal that is not purely profit driven, that can invest its members fees back into the business and NOT to shareholder, directors bonuses etc…. and in the mid to long term will deliver a property portal that the public will undoubtedly use. A point that is very noteworthy to me and other members that have invested from day 1, we opted to invest for the long term, to commit for 5 years, we agreed with the principle that it needed time to grow and breathe life into this profit driven portal market that we have inadvertently created. Sure the DarDuo portals serve a purpose however many, many of the extra bells & whistles serve only one purpose, filling the jangling profit coffers of those portals. "I have a dream….." said Mr Luther…. well the dream has become a reality from Jan 2015… from there it is set to become a fascinating journey… however I would rather take my profession on this journey than sit idly by and watch it being coerced further into a corner by those simply wishing to make a profit!… for supplying an Online Shop Window? I may as well start a company that arrives a puts a large screen in front of every other estate agents window in the United Kingdom and it's purpose is only to advertise my properties and make me a profit!….. yeah?…. right!?
Right you lot, I've just nipped into the old place that Ros used to run and blow me, Russell Quirk has been getting all bent out of shape because he can't go on http://www.onthemarket.com, go and have a quick look – Jonnie
If you had read that comment in context with my actual initial point I think you might understand where I was coming from, although sometimes I feel you intentionally misinterpret or misrepresent my comments. I think my initial point was fair, moderate and non confrontational. I even hung back before posting Wilko because I know how that irritates you if I post too keenly. If there really were no posters like myself or portal person then there would be no 'discussion' at all, just lots of people commenting how brilliant and perfect life will be under the protective wing of AM…which leads me back to why I got involved in the first place. I am definitely not a RM or Z employee, I have no vested interest in AM failing or succeeding (I am just inheritantly interested in the debate..pardon me) but I find it hard to resist responding to some of the comments posted on here, particularly to the conspiracy theorists amongst you. I think I 'play nice' most of the time and I try to make a valid point where possible. I'll make a deal with those that keep telling me to basically go away…I won't comment on the AM stories unless I read a comment revolving around its future unmitigated success…at which point I likely to comment. This way all that say to me 'just leave it till launch, let others make their minds up etc' will get their wish if they follow their own advice…can't say fairer than that surely?
Sorry the initial remark was in reply to Wilko
Rivero…. as long as it's genuine debate, on occasions with some humour thrown in then that's what a forum is for. We will never ever all be for or all against. I can't abide those hiding behind masks with different motives however as a genuine estate agent who remains as passionate about estate agency as I did almost 30 years ago…. I see an opportunity which I feel I must explore as I think it is potentially a better option. Perhaps akin to a client feeling they have gone with the wrong agent and wish to look at an alternative… I'm fine with that if the 1st agent made promises or gave expectations that they knew they probably couldn't fulfill… then the client is right to consider changing… and with regard to Wrongmove, Zippy & Co I think, for me, they no longer serve me, they serve themselves….. yes, they serve the public however that is clearly what Agents Mutual's Portal also seeks to do. On traction, visitor numbers, persuading the public to tune into OnTheMarket.com…. well one of the biggest promoters are the estate agents themselves as it is they who also promote where their property is advertised…I have already started and quite frankly the clients with whom I have spoken with are happy to take my professional opinion as it is me after all that they have bought into in the sense of instructing me and my company to sell their home…. and if I said projecting it on the moon only was the best method I reckon they will judge me by my results and NOT how I got there. Unless or until the public stop interacting with estate agency human beings we still have the ability to advise, promote, negotiate and meet or exceed their expectations….. Portals alone do not sell properties, that is one of the few certainties in this debate… if they do we may as well all lock the door of our offices and retire? They said the High Street was dying, customer service less important, cheap call centres abroad acceptable and the internet the only way?….. it's not!…. however if you believe those with the vested interest in promoting that as the only way…. then you have indeed gone to the dark side! And on that note, some properties successfully sold today and some properties listed, 2 Thank You Cards and a large box of After Eights received in the post from a client for whom I sold locally and then helped them buy a home from another agent in Aviemore…. I can sit happy that I am doing what a good estate agent should. I have indeed found my happy as some online portal seems to say at the end of their emails!
You're all doing a great job in kidding yourselves!!!
Do you know comments like that do more to persuade the undecided than anything else. Once more an employee of Rm or Z or some listing only firm pops up not to reason an argument but simply to tell us that THEIR opinion is the right one. Last time I looked I was living in a free country and do you know what, others may have a different opinion to you but it doesn't mean they are "kidding" themselves. Crawl back to whatever troll cave you came from and leave the debating to the adults!!
GPL – Rome?….. built in a day?! Wrongmove?…. i don't recall them starting online as No 1 Portal, having Traction, having visitor numbers that were stratospheric? …. This a totally flawed argument … RM were one of the 'first adopters' with practically zero competition at launch and they have spent 100s of £millions building the brand and implanting the RM name into Joe Public's mind … There is absolutely no reason for Joe Public to visit a third portal after RM and Z – AM will have to outspend RM and Z 2x, 3x or 4x to stand a chance of breaking the RM and Z habit to any degree and this driving any level of traffic to OTM … and then, those that do visit will find that the level of available property is way below what they see on RM or Z … It's like someone giving a new Italian restaurant a try and finding there are only three pastas and five pizzas on the menu … Most will go back to their regular restaurant and never cross the new doors again … That is exactly what will happen to OTM.
I don't get this argument that 'joe public' only want two websites? Where does this come from? I take it the agents saying this don't have their own sites as nobody wants/needs them/will bother to look?
I like what you did there CP……. you mentioned Pizzas, Pasta in the middle of a load of baloney!
CP…. and there's the problem CP! Wrongmove started with zero competition!…… hence they grew unchallenged!….. they grew funded by estate agents monthly fees! Then Zippy arrived for some pie…. funded by agents during their growth, acquiring the competition and we now arrive at the Darling Duo….. Zippy changes strategy and decides that rather than undercutting Wrongmove they will gradually increase their fees to a similar level….. so the peasants funding the Darling Duo are denied a natural element of competition for our business…. in effect we now akin to the Darling Duo being likened to 2 estate agents in the one area who decide in whatever manner that they will slice up the pie favourably between them! So, enter AM…. if you are a real estate agent on this forum or any other and not a plant from one of the Darling Duo then it seems odd to me that you would just sit there and get sh*fted, effectively controlled by the Darling Duo….. because you are! To say no one wants a 3rd portal is at best somewhat blinkered….. on that basis, if Wrongmove were they only portal to go to why did Zippy finally arrive for pie!… but hey!…. there's the Darling Duo and that's all there should be!?….. nonsense. So, 3 estate agents in an area…. sorry, no room for No 4!? Eh…. No! Competition is part of our business and I can live with that….. dominate, exterminate competition…. No Thanks. Here's a thought for every single Wrongmove & Zippy Member…. drop all your add-on monthly costs which is what helps control you and pay your monthly fee for the standard listing which satisfies your view that either both or one of the Darling Duo are for you…… save the money you haven't spent and either join Agents Mutual and decide for yourself or set that saving aside and join Agents Mutual if you see the required momentum, traction etc etc. If the Darling Duo are that good and that dominant then why do you need the bells & whistles extras that they sell?…… surely the public you serve will simply see the property listings when they log on! We are after all Salespeople…. yet we fall for the equivalent of the Car Sales person selling you endless extras that you don't really need! Otherwise why do we not have revolving for sale boards, illuminated ones, one that go up and down slowly…… all so that you can be better than your competitors?….. forgive me if a For Sale Board does it's job standing outside a property without any extras….why oh why have we got sucked into, extra, extras, extras….. it's astounding that the online shop window wasn't enough to promote the property…..we all fell for… but if you take this it will be better for you, your business, your client….. Hallo!….. why are they designing and selling those extras?!….. Dear G@d!….. think about it……Premium Listings? Oops we all have them now!…. So….. Platinum Listings!…..your clients properties projected onto the surface of the moon at night…..it's better for you, your client, at helping you beat the competition!….. where does it end?…… Aah, Yes…. that's the tricky bit….. you can hear the heavy breathing and you see the Darling Duo Matching Cloaks and Helmets….. and then that phrase "Luke Estate Agent?……I am your master now!". Seriously!….. Open your eyes, spread your options, cut out the extras, save the money and decide if Agents Mutual genuinely offers you and your business a real benefit!…….the good thing is agents like myself and many, many others have helped fund this opportunity and I appreciate some of you will want to wait and see…. and maybe come on board or not…..however in the interim…. if the Darling Duo are the only game in town and everyone goes there then there is NO need for the extras……. use their shop window as a shop window without the very, very costly and it seems in reality unnecessary extras….. as the Dup Supporters say the public go there anyway! In the meantime Agents Mutual breathes and grows and you then decide the worth of what may be the 3rd or 2nd or perhaps 1st portal?…… I don't see only 2 Estate Agency Company's in the UK so Duo's are NOT the only game in town.
"as the Duo Supporters say….."
forgive my typing or the auto correct!
Right everyone, these boys have said it for us @portalperson and @CP look like they are saying don't innovate, don't disrupt, don't evolve, don't change – there is no point getting thousands of agents to set up a new portal, it wont work Z & RM are the only way and will be for good………….unless of course if its their idea then its a runner – Jonnie
Etel you sat "What do these people know about estate agency? As long as the vendor knows his property is on either RM or Z he won't care tiddly-squat about featuring with OnTheMarket as well, giving OTM the opportunity to grow to serious competition. The 'only one other portal' rule is a stroke of genius!" I'll extract this classic from what you say "As long as the vendor knows his property is on either RM or Z he won't care tiddly-squat about featuring with OnTheMarket as well" YOU REALLY BELIEVE THAT?? So, vendors who use Zoopla exclusively (and there are plenty who do) won't give 'tiddly-squat' that their property will be dumped off Z and placed on the unheard of OTM?? … You, and plenty of other AM agents, are in for one **** of a dose of reality come January … Your belief is blind faith and based on nothing more – it has absolutely nothing to do with researching vendors opinions which is the ONLY opinion that counts.
CP? forgive me? you're an estate agent? you list houses for sale? but you can't achieve a sale without your Darling Duo?!?….. hop on the plane to Sunny Scotland and I'll show you how to sell houses! After almost 30 Years of selling property I'm still willing to help those that need help!
GPL – so you are saying you'd sell exactly the same number of houses, just as quickly, at exactly the same price if you weren't on any portals? If you really believe that there must be 1000s of buyers in your area every year who visit RM and Z just for the fun of it.,.. Which of course is absolute nonsense … I am a local estate agent in a semi-rural area currently operating from a business park half a mile from the local high street ie., no high street office … Out of 7 local agents I have the 3rd highest number of listings and my average listing time is the shortest … Try telling me that I don't need portals – they offer one of the best ROI's I've ever come across in 30 years of advertising …. Dump RM and Z with their massive brand awareness and millions of monthly visitors for AM/OTM with zero brand awareness and ? visitors??? Not a chance. And by the way … I am moving onto my local high street before 1st Jan and STILL wouldn't join AM … I don't need to hop anywhere for your advice.
What puzzles me is an agent who "in their mind" will become stronger as a result of NOT being on OTM, and continues to post about this…..I would sit quietly, wait, even promote the idea of going on OTM, as if you are right you have happy times ahead………………if you truly believe OTM is a mistake and come January all will go wrong for AM and its members then, prepare for the upturn in your business activities get ready to mop up…..and stop putting people off joining, you are surely scoring the biggest own goal ever if we all say CP is right! lets stick as we are and forget AM?………..or perhaps you know deep down you are wrong! and come January being on RM and Z will not be enough as being on Z and OTM or RM and OTM will be the only combination to compare!!!!!
I know, I know…… "We estimate?" Sorry, was it 99, 199, 3999…. I can't remember Dear ANALyst, if it's 99 then I'm one if them and as I do a head count in Scotland me thinks the Financial Piggy Forcasters have been inhaling their own fumes exiting to rear!
LaLa, Dipsy, Po, ANALYST?….. we are the telling porkies teleforecasters!
With the sound of a helicopter overheard I hear the cry over the loudspeaker and look up and see the ANALysts in their Pinstripe Combat Fatigues shouting " dont cha just love the smell of b@llsh*te in the morning".
Agents Mutual…… we'll just get on with it and ignore the flak…. however if the Darling Duo weren't troubled why would they be directing fire at us! Wrongmove & Zippy forgot to wake up and smell the coffeee!…. noting they still seem unable or unwilling to consult properly with their paying members and ask " what can we do FOR YOU?"….. rather than FOR THEMSELVES! Laughable! Hallo out there, wake up and tell ME why you should be my OTHER portal!…. or does those years of income from me count for nothing?….. nope?…. thought so!
GPL – so you are saying you'd sell exactly the same number of houses, just as quickly, at exactly the same price if you weren't on any portals? If you really believe that there must be 1000s of buyers in your area every year who visit RM and Z just for the fun of it.,.. Which of course is absolute nonsense … I am a local estate agent in a semi-rural area currently operating from a business park half a mile from the local high street ie., no high street office … Out of 7 local agents I have the 3rd highest number of listings and my average listing time is the shortest … Try telling me that I don't need portals – they offer one of the best ROI's I've ever come across in 30 years of advertising …. Dump RM and Z with their massive brand awareness and millions of monthly visitors for AM/OTM with zero brand awareness and ? visitors??? Not a chance. And by the way … I am moving onto my local high street before 1st Jan and STILL wouldn't join AM.
So I am interested to know CP, you've been operating for 30 years, you are so successful that you are whipping your traditional high street based estate agents from you industrial park location, and you are now moving in to your high street……..why?
I said to myself that I would take a week or so off of this subject for fear of my heart rate exploding, however, can I please point you all to the following that was raised by Ros and is also in the report;
"Is 1,400 branches enough? We estimate that around 100 UK estate agency firms representing 1,400 branches have signed contracts with AM. Will homebuyers rush to view a portal which lists properties from less than 8% of the UK's estate agency branches, or will they stick to Zoopla and Rightmove?"….The analyst is basing their findings on only 1400 being on the portal in January.
From page 4 of the report….."We have analysed Agents’ Mutual’s latest marketing pack. So far we estimate that 99 firms
have actually signed up and that combined these firms have 1402 branches, which equates to around 7.8% of the potential market."….I'd love to see this latest marketing pack Jefferies is referring to.
Paul H. Homebuyers won't even know about the "New portal" because that will take time and traction, time which smaller independent agencies don't have to not be generating income. OTM will be the failure of a few agencies before it's the success all the fan boys think it will.
Also the admin of this website needs to learn how to configure a web server to not collapse after a few dozen requests!
Portal person…Go and see page 6 of the report which says there are 16 firms from London who have signed up (there are 89 firms that I know are on board within 400 yards of my office on board), 4 firms from Scotland and 7 from Wales. Did you say something about a web server collapsing?!
Should be 9 firms within 400 yards of my office not 89, not yet anyway.
Portal person? Remind me….. Rome?….. built in a day?! Wrongmove?…. i don't recall them starting online as No 1 Portal, having Traction, having visitor numbers that were stratospheric? Tis praiseworthy indeed that you set the bar so high for AM? Tick Tock to January 2016…. that will give real facts & figures!…. that's what I deal in….. i'll leave you to wander the corridors of Disneymove & Co!
Afternoon PortalPerson – I get it now…. you applied for a job with AM and you were turned down. Must be it!………………. I get the Online Only & Corps not liking AM, but a tech person so convinced this cannot work I just don't get. (and you make out that you know something no other tech person does, which is why it will not)…………… If you were not turned down by them, you must work for the Z tech team? I simply cannot believe you are a genuine tech chap without a hidden agenda to be so Anti-AM…… It doesn't make sense.
Thank you Rivero…. however, on a serious note… I remember sitting in The Fossil Bar thousands of years ago chatting to The Great Quentin Caveman, a renowned ANALyst at George Wooley Mammoth ANALysts!…. I remember him advising me to buy Dinosaur Shares!…. no question he said "mankind is f&@ked"….. anyway I said let's wait and see Quentin…. well I'm here and Quentin & The Dinosaurs aren't! On a serious note?… I do struggle with the ANALysts who have very little to analyse as AM is not up n' running to analyse and the analysis of both Wrongmove & Zippy continue to be greatly motivated by appearing to enhance their share price growth!….. to the betterment of those nasty little financial piggies! Being Scottish I can offer a comment on the Great Fred Wrongwin of that well know Rabbie Burns S Bank! Another example of a Pied Piper playing his tune and those blindly following. A monster salary, an office in London, and the title of ANALyst does not make one…. when they are often looking thru the Rose Tinted Glasses supplied by those that they recently lunched with and for whom their investors, pension funds etc are paramount! I want to see every single report that these ANALysts have made in relation to Wrongmove & Zippy and judge how much elasticity is there when it comes to their so called predictions! Here's the real nub of it…. Wrongmove have a goodish online product spoiled by poir management of their paying members….. Zippy jumped on the bandwagon and are being kicked around the block by Wrongmove & others!….. and AM is launching despite all the hokum pokum from the Darling Duo on the basis that there is space, a need, a want for a portal that delivers better!…. and yes, I need HUGE amount of text space to define better! Stamped on the inside of my brain is AM Jan 2016! … that bring when I will. ANALYSE the progress of AM! In the meantime I'll leave Mystic Meg & Co The ANALysts to predict that we should all be investing in DINOSAUR SHARES as someone apparently saw one getting on the Eurostar from Paris! Now, let me put my finger out the window and predict the weather whilst the ANALysts put their fingers up their ars*s!
err I need spelling lessons and less haste with two finger typing, but that's what happens when one has little time spare to post. I'm off to sell another property and the buyer who has internet, prefers the personal touch and called into the office.
How nice for you. You should give yourself a pat on the back, it won't be long before your business is solely relying on walk ins to generate income because relying on OTM certainly won't bring them. Fact not fiction 😉
I have to say I'm getting bored with this anti AM posts. If AM are not that big a deal, why are you all so worried. Me thinks that some of the posters haven't a clue what they are talking about as the writing is clearly on the wall and are actually people working for RM or Z or web only portals who have everything to loose! Just let us get on and fail as you predict and we'll see how's right next year.
Perhaps I am naive but I don't understand why many of you feel that 3 separate city analysts would intentionally mislead investors in relation to the impact of OTM…it doesn't seem like a sensible business strategy for their respective companies or their individual careers to me. Is it not possible that they genuinely see and appreciate all the flaws that people like me see? Now, true, we may turn out to have been overly critical (I doubt it), however to suggest they are effectively making it all up due to vested interests seems far fetched to me.
Rivero I wouldn't worry about it and buy those Z shares if they are right!
It's Rightmove shares I'll be buying, given that next to none of you are dropping them and those that are will be back with their tales between their legs on a higher tariff than when they left….oh and with a weakened number two competitor.
Well good luck with that but……. DO IT….. don't just talk about it….. put your money where your mouth is! I have.
Hey rivero, you can take that 'perhaps' out !
Quipping aside, you seem to spend a huge amount of your time briefing against Agents Mutual. If you don't want to join….don't …..and let other agents make up their own mind.
I apologise, I had momentarily forgotten these comments sections are reserved only for pro AMers and it is forbidden for anyone to hold a dissenting opinion.
No need to apologise , maybe just answer the question instead?
I'm a first timer here but it's your endless 'river o rant' that has made me wonder just why is it you care so much? If it's materially flawed, it won't work so why not just let events take their course?
You hadn't asked me a question. Now you've asked one I'll gladly answer. I only started posting a couple of weeks ago as I felt the comments sections were imbalanced. It frustrated me that what I saw as ridiculous claims were being made unchallenged. You are right that I spend too much time on here, yet I now feel compelled to add opinion from the sceptics as they tend mainly to populate EAT. What I say or do won't change anyone's mind and I'm not trying to, but I intend on offering my opinion regardless, just like everyone else does on here.
"appreciate all the flaws that people like me see? "….That's the thing, there are next to no people who work in the industry who see flaws in AM s model-you are one of only a small number now. It may not work (I believe it will)…only time will tell, but 1 thing is certain…Zoopla cannot expand over the next 5 years and will lose between £75million and £100million in lost subs from the offices that take their property from them and put it on OTM…so flaws or not, please tell me how you see Zoopla achieving the target of £3.25…..if you can't tell me then, yes, you are being very naïve.
"That's the thing, there are next to no people who work in the industry who see flaws in AM s model" What utter nonsense, there are still 1000s more offices that haven't signed up then have, I fear you have mistaken the PIE comments section as representative of the industry…it most certainly is not.
Can you tell me how you see Zoopla progressing, and reaching their target of £3.25….?That is what this article is about, and I was interested in your views on that….you always seem come back anti AM/OTM never with facts or fact based viewpoints or answers on the question in hand.
I have no idea and it's of no concern to me, but then that wasn't my point.
Zoopla have enough market share to just hold out until AM/OTM flops through no traffic so your comments on their business plan(s) really don't matter
I really am beginning to wonder why the likes of rivero and portal person post on this discussion forum. Discussion is an exchange of ideas and viewpoints, yet your last 2 posts "it is of no concern to me" and "their business plans don't matter" is not really constructive when commenting on an article where an analyst has suggested that a property portals' share price may go up to £3.25 To state that you are both simply "not interested". It is totally pointless in my view.
Is that a Banjo that I can hear playing slowly in the background, then gradually speeding up….. as the Financial Piggies squeal in their pen!? Oink Oink Zoopla Analysts…. you may as well put your finger out the window and tell me what the weather is going to be! Their "reputation" teeters on that floatation and everyone who took their statements as a reason to invest in Zoopla!?….. the biggest vessel making the biggest noise is Zoopla and their Analysts….. funny? those first 4 letters that spell ANALysts!
I'll FORECAST this!….. let's just review the whole portal market & AM on January 2016, by then we can actually look at what HAS happened!…. rather than this nonsense ANALYST forecast!… I can see them in their offices….. tent like, dark, a table, a lace headscarf and a ruddy great big crystal ball!…. forecast this…. the WINNING Lottery numbers for this Saturday!…. then I'll take notice. If Zoopla and their ANALysts wish to apologise to me or print me an apology then get in touch!
I do enjoy your posts GPL…they are so colourful and 'abstract', you are the Brain Blessed of the comments sections.
A little birdie told me that the 3 main agent shareholders in ZPG (Connells, Countrywide and LSL) are free to sell the rest of their shares in December (ie 180 days after the float). I wonder what will happen then ?
Interesting point, I received an a4 flyer from a large countrywide agent. They advertise 4 portals. Each logo is a different size the largest and most prominent is their own propertywide, next zoopla, primelocation and the smallest (the logo about a 10th of the size of the biggest) is the logo of Rightmove. Barely noticeable on their marketing.
What is really happening here is the city is worried to ****. It is being threatened by a new boy about to hit the market that they haver absolutely no control over (as a mutual) and all they are interested in is keeping share value up, which they see is going down and could take a BIG DIVE if AM is successful, otherwise they wouldn't all be coming out championing their particular clients. Credit Suisse who have no stake said it all yesterday and the city with personal interests are in panic mode to ridicule the inevitable.
Have also seen the site, far far better than Zoopla, easily as good as Rightmove. Very impressed. As someone not yet fully decided, seeing it helps.
This is brilliant stuff…Jeffries that did the Zoopla share launch, now says they will target at……wait for it…..£3.25!!!!!!!…..Please please, somebody tell me how they are going to make up their £15m to £20m shortfall p/a for the 5 years from 2015??? not to mention further growth. Income and growth are the only 2 things that will increase their share price…..Someone tell me how they are going to do it….because this (and other) articles don't say how they are going to do it….they just say there is no threat from AM. so £15m -£20m loss per annum isn't a threat?
Figures like this are really annoying , if Zoopla are due to lose £100 million from list subs from 25% of the market , 5000 offices, this would put hem on £300 million a year left ? More than the gross than Rightmove gross … It's just made up guessing
"It's just made up guessing"…No it's just you not understanding what is being said. Wilko is referring to losses over 5 years not per year. Zooplas annual turnover is £65m not £400m. In other words Zoopla will lose roughly a third of turnover per year for 5 years.
I've seen the visuals of the website and i'm slightly underwhelmed..
"with currently NO site on what the portal will look like and content, and how it will work etc only talk and a logo"……………………..Seen the stills of the site and FANTASTIC!!! Clean, crisp, first thing you can do when you get to the home page "Search for property" when in a property info ordered well…..again crisp, clean and tidy….. LOOKED SUPERB!!! Seriously impressed as this was my biggest fear……….. but it looks every bit as good as RM and massively better than Z.
It's fair to say there is a lot of reasons in the city to down play the possible impact OTM might have, after all in Z and RM, we are talking about two high performing investments over the last couple of years and a lot of investment firms would have invested money in both of them.
Completely agree…….. They would be more honest to comment "We actually have no idea of the impact OTM will have on the other two, other than there will be an impact! We can say however, that never before has a competitor portal to the top two caused such a stir and nor has the shareholders of the competitor portal been the clients of the top two!"
New portals open up frequently, list for free blah, blah and rightly no one pays any attention and they never take off……..now we have wwww.onthemarket.com that hasn't even launched yet and big clever city chaps are talking about it, Z get a week long apology on here because someone was a bit unkind to them and the online only outfits that employ their own full time gob on a stick like that Quirk lad that works for Faisal Butt all get a wet patch on their trousers about it while getting cross that they can't go on it / saying it won't work, never has a new portal attracted so much interest? And while I'm at it, I'm dropping Z like most people will – Jonnie
Jefferies forgets that we possibly stupidly made Rightmove and Zoopla what they are, buy giving them our properties and therefore building their brand!
However I do agree that we seem to be a lot of sheep been drawn in on a 5 year potential contract with currently NO site on what the portal will look like and content, and how it will work etc only talk and a logo (we certainly wouldnt of done this with R & Z I feel. We also don't know whether it will launch at beginning of January? I also agree that at present lots of 'goodwill' but very few agents actually signed up 5000 what,intent !
Many agents just waiting and watching, as I am sure Zoopla and Rightmove are too as answerable to shareholders.
Dates to watch 30th of November if launch date is going to happen for AM.
There not "your properties" unless you are paying the mortgage? They are your clients who have entrusted them to you to sell them for the highest possible price …. Something most AM'ers seem to just sweep under the carpet
You could argue if there is a mortgage on a property then the Bank or BS owns the place!!! You know what True Agent meant!!!
I thought it wouldn't be long before someone made that comment Danny but consider this: Most estate agents will be staying with either Z or RM so as we've discussed many times, as portal advertising isn't the only marketing local agents do, thats a major portal advert covered. Tick. Local agents are then adding to that with a new portal that will receive plenty of coverage and promotion and will be a must see for buyers, so thats a new high platform portal for sellers covered. Tick. Its an advertising space devoid of spuriously valued properties from listing only companies 150 miles away affecting your ability to get the best price for your property covered. Tick and finally it avoids that awful device that inaccurately tells buyers what a portal believes your house is worth or what a property that has not been compared accurately to yours has sold for 6 months ago. Hmm that's whether its in your sellers best interest and getting the best price for the property covered too. Tick.
Some interesting points RealAgent. Firstly why will AM be a "must see for buyers" . Its not launched yet so you have no clue what it will look like. A friend of mine in Newcastle has seen the wireframes through his AM rep and was "dramatically underwhelmed" For those of you who watch the apprentice its similar to describing solar panneled jackets as a "must have" .Im just going to deal in the facts. I have 5 branches and my clients have told me that they want me to advertise their property on Rightmove and Zoopla. They havent complained about the extra features that you mentioned on Zoopla, in fact when talking to them they use the site specifically for these. No business in the world have ever succeeded by thinking about its consumer proposition second ,"build it and they will come" is just a phallacy. The liklehood is that AM will struggle to gain traction and I want to see what happens before signing into a 5 year contract for a product I have never seen with no track record for more money . When I write it down it actually seems a bit ludricrous, who ever its "owned" by
I would have thought it obvious danny but a new portal, driven by the estate agents that push property to it, launched as all are, with a fanfare and containing the uploads from over 5000 offices. Yes I would say if I were a buyer I would want to see that. Its nothing to do with what the website looks like or will ever be about that. I don't think my clients have ever complained about it but don't you see features like that cloud their opinions. You are telling one price Zoopla for instance are telling them another, unless of course you are telling me that you use their valuations, which is a whole different discussion. I fail to see how where you advertise your properties is thinking about a clients proposition second. Are you really just one of those list it and hope it sells merchants? because if not then the portals should generate nothing more than leads for you to work on. but, and heres the real point they should be just a part of a wider marketing strategy, after all in most locations your buyers don't come from 50 miles away, they live on the same development, in the same area, drive passed the property on their way to work, come from a register of buyers you have that you call when a property might suit. You know "proper" estate agency. One of the most successful estate agents in the country has only ever advertised on one of the portals….but no you crack on and let your inexperienced and unqualified clients tell you the best way to market their property because that certainly why people employ so called professionals isn't it, to then tell their estate agent what to do!?!!
You lost me when you said "don't you see features like that cloud their opinion " … Is that in the way that that the tailors clouded the emporer about his new clothes . I made my decision about this over a dinner party . I explained to a friend of mine in recruitment what the offer was and why some people where signing up. He looked at me in puzzlement and explained he pays c £11,000 a month to job websites ….. Because they work . Morale if the story, if it delivers value use it… If it doesn't ditch it
Love it! “There are also risks that our assessment of the threat of Agents’ Mutual may be wrong.”………. Yup you may well be! #otm2015
What do these people know about estate agency? As long as the vendor knows his property is on either RM or Z he won't care tiddly-squat about featuring with OnTheMarket as well, giving OTM the opportunity to grow to serious competition. The 'only one other portal' rule is a stroke of genius!
…apart from the fact that Scottish Lettings Agents can be on two…and next…..
Jeffries were appointed by Zoopla to handle their float were they not?
The Jeffries report has two interesting points. It targets a price of 325p but doesn't say when that price may be hit. It also ends the report by saying – "There are also risks that our assessment of the threat of Agents Mutual may be wrong". Talk about hedging your bets!