Figures from data marketing and analytics company House Vault suggest that within the next week total new listings of properties for sale could fall as low as 1,000 a week across the whole country.
The company makes it prediction based on the trend shown in this graph which is derived from tracking the three main portals and then using an algorithm to predict the full address of each property. This enables de-duplication of multi-listed properties.
House Vault say: “The current headwinds from the government’s advice to avoid moving home will certainly see new listings and newly sold listings take a further drop of 70-80% next week depending on how agents can adapt to virtual listings. SSTC should drop at a fast pace next month since the recent drops have lagged new listings.
“Now that new weekly listings have broken below 10,000, unless agents can adapt quickly to new ways of listings, we expect to see 1,000-2,000 new listings a week. The new listings acts as a leading indicator of the long term to the health of the housing market, so if agents can adapt to the situation we would see the strong possibility of a quick rebound of homes selling once restrictions are lifted.”
We expect to update the figures in due course.
One agent that appears determined to get hold of market share and do a good turn at the same time is Nicol & Co with branches in Droitwich Spa and Worcester.
It already uses virtual tours and video in its operations and even has its own studio.
Now the company is offering to carry out valuations by live video for anyone thinking of selling their home and whatever number of valuations result in instructions in the next three weeks, Nicol & Co will multiply them by £100 and send the cash direct to Worcestershire Acute Hospitals NHS Trust.
Matt Nicol, managing director of Nicol & Co, said, “I’m sure we are all very grateful to our NHS for all that they are doing in their huge battle against COVID-19.
“While we’re all self-isolating at home, modern media communication means that business as usual can continue as we prepare for when the pandemic is over.
“People wanting to sell their homes should know that there’s a captive market out there sitting in their own living rooms looking for things to do.
“And many of them who were already thinking of moving are still contacting estate agents to find them suitable properties to consider for later this summer.
“With that in mind, Nicol & Co is carrying out live video valuations for anyone thinking of selling in the coming weeks, and we pledge to donate £100 to the NHS for every instruction signed up by 21 April.”
Comments (29)
Purplebricks have just announced to LPE’s that they are to get £100 extra per listing we instruct.
Not sure how they can call that a support package.
What a joke. All while the three musketeers draw their big salaries.
Some great comments above, but one really caught my eye.
‘PeeBee’ asked how we verify listings. I’m the main architect behind HouseVault and it took a lot of naive analysis to realize something was amiss in the listing data. We are a small team of mainly data scientists so when we saw listings disappear and then reappear a few days later we wondered why vendors were so changeable 🙂
Fast forward 18 months and the penny dropped. So to answer this question we do the following.
We will take a listing, match the full address and agent information. Then we track the property from when it first enters the market to the time of either: OTM, Sold or Withdrawn. Then we will keep the listing data stored and if the same agent re-lists the same property then we keep the original listing date.
The ‘padymagic’ (I’m new to all these pseudonyms) asked about if an agent should list or not.
If you follow the laws of probability then surely you must list now? There is no macroeconomic pressure to push down house prices, there is an increase in portal visits and there is probably a 90% drop in supply by next week. I don’t think the question should be about listing properties but rather about can you sell. To the latter, of course, it’s near impossible to sell houses right now. But to have conversations with potential buyers while they are home and have time to talk? I can’t see any negative in this.
Regards,
Daniel
HouseVault.co.uk
Daniel
Thank you for taking the time to respond to my query.
You have my attention – something that doesn’t happen often.
What about historic #RElistings. If a property is “Just added” to Zoopla today, how do you know it has or hasn’t been previously listed?
You mention 18 months – is that how far back your records stretch?
Hi PeeBee,
You’re welcome. Good to hear you are interested in the stats behind the research – we often make these often unsure if it’s only of interest to us 🙂
“What about historic #RElistings. If a property is “Just added” to Zoopla today, how do you know it has or hasn’t been previously listed?”
– Because we know the full address we are able to catch listings that have been on the market previously. It’s worth pointing out that being relisted doesn’t always mean its marketing ploy to bump up the listing. But we account for this and would not count a listing as ‘new’ if it was obviously down for just a few days with a new listing ID on a portal.
“You mention 18 months – is that how far back your records stretch?”
Yes, that’s correct. Our full listing data actually goes back around 30 months however we are not confident about the older quality since we were a start-up without the same tracking ability from the start. 18 months of our data is clean and we are confident in its accuracy.
Shameless plug:
Our members can access our reporting in more detail within the platform. To try and help agents and also keep us relevant at this time we have opened this up for free to independents and small chains.
Regards,
Daniel
Housevault.co.uk
Daniel
I am not an Estate Agent, but would be extremely keen interested to test the quality of your data.
Interested?
Hi PeeBee,
We have an open version coming out this month so if you drop an email to support (@) housevault.co.uk we will let you know when it’s ready.
All the best,
Daniel
The system is being gamed wholesale – this is easier to spot when listings numbers are lower.
I would be extremely interested in how House Vault ‘verify’ their listings figures.
I’ve got a couple of new listings going live in early April, photos, EPC etc all done some time ago. The question is : To advertise now or not to advertise now?
That is the question!
I don’t understand these numbers. Why aren’t listings going UP? As unemployment has spiked to 950,000, on its way IMHO to at least 2 million, there are going to be hundreds of thousands of people who never should have bought but who got suckered in on a 95% LTV deal These people will all be selling. Then there should be the less brain dead BTLers who must realise that the game is up now. They have had their good times in the sun (and boy they DID have some good times). But it is obviously time to cash in the chips now (and anyway many of them aren’t going to get any rent for 6 months so they might as well sell). Then you have all the poor Help to Buy suckers. At least the BTLers made a ton of money. The poor 21 year olds who watched Phil and Kirstie and bought into the “dream” have already lost what pittance of equity they had. They might as just just jingle mail the keys now. So listings should be increasing rapidly. If they haven’t yet, then as Hamlet says “’tis to come ….”
To “list a house” 99% of the time, you need people to go to houses, (collect a key, be let in, whatever the access is) and thus break the laws of Lockdown.
COVID-19 can be passed on via Keys, door handles, Key Safes, or say your car breaks down on the way to your non-essential measure up, or god forbid you have a crash and NHS and Emergency services are called out (They have nowt else to do at present!).
So, anything which was not measured up before 24th of March should not be measured up thereafter, to avoid the risks above.
Obviously there is an exception for Careless, stupid mindless morons, who think “it won’t happen to me” they can move around freely and add to the length of lockdown by not chilling out and a tleast getting to the 14th April for the next update.
Hope this helps.
Agreed Ric. Anyone travelling for non-essential work is just taking the proverbial….
Shame the this will be censored… they are dickheads.
Playing by the rules will get us back to normal quicker.
oh well… not censored. haha
Good morning James are you aware that all properties must display an EPC?
there is a 28 day grace period for properties lifted which don’t have a valid EPC
With the country in lockdown no one who employs assessors would dare risk an employee contracting CV19, any assessor who is self employed who continues to offer the service during a worldwide pandemic lockdown that threatens economies across the world is being a little selfish.
Unless an EPC is considered an essential, comparable with buying food or medicine it is hard to see how any agent is going to list any property requiring an EPC for more than the 28 day grace period.
My opinion is that the stock agents have with an EPC is what they have and in 14 days come Tuesday anything listed since lock down will not be allowed to be marketed unless the EPC requirement is lifted.
Well said and everyone should read this https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-energy-performance-certificates
I don’t know the ins and outs of their offer but if they can build rapport with customer and sign up an instruction – perhaps on the basis that the property will be offered when the lockdown is over – and give a donation to their local NHS… good luck to ’em.
Nothing coming to the market in Scotland because you need a Home Report before openly marketing. This Report also contains a mortgage valuation.
I am seeingScoittish properties being #RElisted, where the Home Reports have been updated stating that the inspections and EPCs have been carried out in the last 10 days.
How do you think that is happening?
Shouldn’t be PeeBee. Are we talking The Purple One or just Joe Agent?
There is a Corporate Agent with in-house Surveyors however, Lockdown means Lockdown for All.
I guess ye ken the answer tae the question a’ready, GPL!
One of the ones I found states
“This is a replacement Single Survey following on from the original inspection on the 29th April, 2019”
The document also lacks an EPC and PIQ – which is most unusual.
Are any surveyors carrying out Home Reports (or have been since mid-March)?
Agent pre Pandemic: “It is vital when you launch a property the price is right and you ensure you get the early interest. A property is it’s most salable in the first few weeks, at the time you get the most viewings. So it is important to get the price right”
Agent 1 during Pandemic: “Nah, first few weeks don’t matter, we always list property when the audience is distracted ESPECIALLY by a World Wide Health Scare… but no NOT at Christmas though… no point listing then why an earth would you list at Christmas when people are distracted by Santa but still allowed out.!
Agent 2 during Pandemic: “It really doesn’t matter nobody can view houses and there are very few new mortgage products on the market at the moment. I also don’t think lots of savvy agents will be waiting for the end of the lockdown to be lifted so there is no chance your property will get lost in the plethora of potential New Instructions then, so go for it, I expect big things”
Agent 3 during Pandemic: “Yes, list now, we launched one with a Video Tour and had healthy interest and Jonny logged on yesterday and WOW we had 3 offers from the Video Tour. Amazing really… couldn’t believe it, sale agreed, solid sale. Although I should add… We often get offers from people who say… I’ve seen the photo and want to offer, or I don’t need to see it to offer… and we don’t take them serious… pfft…. a Video is different…makes us believe more.”
Agent 4 during Pandemic: “Keep your gun powder dry… we can launch at the right price, knowing to a better extent (but perhaps not the full extent) what level of return to normality we will have. We do it when your viewers will have a new mortgage agreed in principle or when they can view immediately if required, and don’t forget, it might be hardly any new properties comes on, which means there will be a chance to try for a higher price if we have supply demand issue and mortgage rates remain low (Otherwise, you can undercut the other unsold stock, be brand new at the right price and steal the market. Oh, and there is no point playing to buyers who are virtual viewing and offering low with comments like “because of the situation I am offering 10% less”. Remove that excuse from people. Stay Home, Stay Safe, Keep Calm and wait.. YOU WILL NOT LOSE A BUYER with this plan, as there is no buyer to lose.
This period will certainly highlight the professionals in the industry….some agents are always trying to circumvent the rules…..take the hit like everybody else and shut up shop
You’re on the money Ric.
Virtual Viewers, Virtual Buyers …….in effect they are committing to Virtually Nothing.
Real Sellers should indeed keep their powder dry. “New to Market” should mean just that.
Absolutely Spot on Ric, Been having a conversation with my employer (is he still that if I am Furloughed) about virtual viewings, with me putting forward the question of “but what reason do they have to stick at it once this is all over as they can do nothing other than make an offer based on a video”
I know we are all used to doing everything we can to make money, get a deal, beat the competition etc, but in these current times, why are we even bothering. The public have far more important things to worry about. Now should be a time that as agents we prove to our local market that we are different. A few friendly posts on Facebook/Social media, helping tenants that really need it, reaching out to vendors and landlords to assure them that we are still here if they have any questions but that is about it!
Well, that is my opinion anyway
Hope you are all staying safe wherever you are
JB
Virtual Tours… Another bottom line cost which will bring NO EXTRA SALE…
The idea of these “investing in Virtual Tours was the best thing I ever did“… I mean… guessing the Pandemic was indeed a master stroke!
The only thing I have learnt from this is…
I am stock piling Hand Gel, Face Masks and Dettol for the next Pandemic Lockdown, I think I will make more with this contingency plan than Virtual Tours.
Next we will see “List with us to get the Covid-19 test” and “Swap to us to get the vaccine”.
Such a joke.
Keep calm, stay safe and for me… Same Script would mean we all come out of this where we left it.
New listings from next week shouldn’t be anything above ZERO.
If YOU are listing properties for sale, YOU are MISLEADING your vendors.
Be HONEST during this period and advise them to wait.
They WILL be grateful for the advice.
Trying to “value’ a home based pre-pandemic prices, and within a housing market that hadn’t been affected by job losses, 1000s of business closures and a new level of risk as far as mortgage lenders go, is pure folly. As sales can’t complete, no one has any idea what values are likely to be in a few months time.
Agents in my area are still doing valuations and viewings……
There should be none. Zero. Zip.
I have reported them.
Stay at home and save lives……….