UK house prices next year are likely to ‘re-accelerate’ – unless a no-deal Brexit causes them to plunge.
A no-deal Brexit would trigger a median drop of some 10% during the course of next year.
The fall could be between minus 5.7% and minus 12.3%.
The forecast comes from international bank Edmond De Rothschild.
It is predicting an average rise this year in UK house prices of 0.5% and, if Brexit is achieved with a deal, 1.9% next year.
While the report mentions scenarios in the event of what would happen on October 31, the findings were released only yesterday.
The bank has also modelled various housing market scenarios in other European countries, but is the least certain about prospects in the UK.
It is forecasting stablisation in Switzerland, a price slowdown in France, and strong house price rises in Germany.
Comments (6)
Good.
Prices have reached a ridiculous level and at least a 10% drop is needed to encourage first time buyers and investors.
The European Monetary Fund is essentially bust as are half the European Banks including Deutsche Bank. A no-deal Brexit would release the UK from 40 to 500 billion euro exposure depending on the size of any future euro/bank collapse.
Rothschild simply cannot afford to allow the UK to leave the EU on a clean break?
0% to 5% drop, with Brexit, without Brexit. (Our area)
Any rise (if there is one) in Q1 will be short lived as stock re-appears.
Small correction required, as people extending rather than moving is not stopping… so the rungs of the ladder need to pulled together a bit in our area.
My guess.
With the current lack of supply i forecast a stagnant year for house prices, no matter what happens with Brexit and the GE
Agree, in an uncertain market people just don’t move, so less stock equals a housing shortage and thus a stagnant market.
What utter ****!
Who are these faceless tossers predicting doom and gloom.
****** of you lightweight ******* morons