Agents could leave Rightmove once those who are currently free on OnTheMarket start paying.

The suggestion is in an article in Investors Chronicle, which says that OTM is “vastly cheaper” than Rightmove “at a time when estate agents are under pressure to find cost savings”.

The piece, by Jonas Crosland, points out that, like OTM, Rightmove was started by agents – Countrywide, Connells, Halifax and Royal & Sun Alliance (which has since morphed into LSL).

However, these agents have since sold down their holdings while OTM is 70% owned by the agents who supply the listings.

Meanwhile Rightmove has grown to have “virtually total market penetration”.

Crosland says the point is that OTM can offer a cheaper service, “whereas previously agents had little choice but to stump up whenever Rightmove increased its prices”.

He continues: “And stump up they have.

“In 2001, Rightmove’s average rate per advertiser (ARPA) was £100 per office per month.

“By 2017, this was up to £922, giving a compound annual growth rate of 14%.

“And these are averages. Nearly half of its subscribers pay over £1,000 a month, and some as much as £1,500.

“All this has come at a time when estate agents are experiencing a really rough patch as transactional volume flatlines.

“And whereas Rightmove reported operating margins of 75.8% in its last annual results, OTM  is expected to operate on margins nearer 30% and ARPA of £300 per month.

“Suddenly OTM starts to look attractive but it needs to gain a greater market share to be able to fund further growth.

“And at the moment agents are being brought on board without having to pay a fee. The revenue stream will be turned on when the model achieves critical mass. At this point, the idea is that agents will start to pay and save money by leaving one of the other portals.”

Crosland believes that when agents start paying OTM, they will be asked to sign five-year contracts – the point at which they will leave Rightmove.

Crosland thinks Rightmove will find it very difficult to respond. It can’t buy OTM because 70% of the shareholders are agents. And it won’t be able to cut its prices without demolishing its own bottom line.

He concludes: “So, having nearly doubled its profits in the past four years, and trading on nearly 30 times forecast earnings, Rightmove’s share price must at some point start to look vulnerable.”

The full piece is here (on subscription):

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/property-matters/2018/07/12/challenging-times-for-rightmove/