A year ago, estate agency guru Bob Scarff forecast that in five years time 25% of house sales would be by vendors who had opted for some form of self service.
One year in, he reckons online/hybrid agents have around 7% market share, meaning that the sector will have to grow at 4.5% in each of the next four years for the prediction to come true.
But could they run out of money first?
Scarff says this is likely. In the “no-frills sector”, he says consolidation will be this year’s word, and indeed he says there’s at least one merger rumoured.
Scarff stresses that his prediction of 12 months ago does not distinguish between pay-upfront and other models.
But he does say: “If the growth of the pay first agents slowed towards the end of last year, then it’s to do with the wider realisation that it’s only good value to pay first if you succeed in completing your sale. There’s far more awareness now of this simple fact and that’s a good thing.
“Paying first can only even begin to be good value if you complete your sale. Ergo, if you don’t, then it is clearly not.”
Scarff also revisits his categorisation of agents into four types – head in the sand; muddled thinking; foot in both camps; and two models, one brand.
Those agents with a foot in both camps, offering clear brand segmentation, “will emerge as the biggest winners”.
That was what Scarff said 12 months ago. He does not appear to have changed his mind, pointing to LSL’s backing of Yopa among other examples.
The full blog is here: http://callwell.co.uk/blog/2018-03-15-which-piggy-are-you-now
Separately, Swiss bank UBS has cut its market share forecast for Purplebricks from 15% to 12% and its target price for shares from 305p to 285p, and says that Yopa now poses a threat to Purplebricks’ growth.
It says that Purplebricks’ market share of sold subject to contracts has been around 5% since last September.
The bank’s analysts say in a note: “Given the importance of the spring market, we believe that this level of progress will be below management’s expectations, and will raise questions around the potential market share Purplebricks is able to achieve.
“Along with Purplebricks growth slowing, we can now see sustained growth from one of the challenger brands, Yopa, which has increased its market share to circa 0.5% of the market.
“Whilst this is still small relative to Purplebricks, Yopa’s strong funding position to support further advertising campaigns means this brand represents a threat.
“In addition, the growing prevalence of the ‘no sale no fee’ proposition by other online agents may disrupt further market share growth for Purplebricks.”
Yesterday, Purplebricks’ shares closed at 338p, down from 360p the day before but still significantly higher than the UBS target.
Comments (72)
Other than buying or selling a business, I’m struggling to think of anything as convoluted as buying or selling a house, numerous participants all of which are key and a single point of failure, I’m still staggered by the fact that vendors who are sophisticated in their own areas of expertise ( personal and professional ) have been duped for so long in that list and walk does not keep the plates spinning and spin they must if there is to be a successful outcome, to my mind the genius of it is in the scatter gun nature of the model because if they had traction, proper traction at a local level they’d be doing something right but they don’t, I moved around plenty in my early career because to ( in my mind ) be any good I had to dance in the club’s and drink in the pubs and shop in the shops of the town or city that I was plying my trade, plus it was fun, happy days 🙂
Sorry to be on topic but can online agents grow their market share to 25% in 4 years? I don’t think so; the fee structure doesn’t allow it, there is no contingency and that is a weakness a good agent should exploit at every appraisal
An agent’s no sale , no fee commission is the product of an agent’s fiduciary duties and precedent defined obligations to it’s principals. It is a system that automatically caters for agents getting something wrong; If the property doesn’t sell the agent doesn’t get paid and if the agent is negligent or has got the price wrong invariably the sale never gets agreed in the first place. Agents complying with their redress scheme obligations ought to be able to evidence and defend their advice and valuation so have a protection against comeback.
Passive intermediary listing firms using online comparison method based valuation systems don’t have that protection, by claiming to be estate agents and experts, internet listing firms are warranting the same reassurances as #local agency, the same knowledge, the same experience. However in relying on flawed algorithm AVM models which even those who hawk such systems admit to being rubbish the internet listing firms are creating a vulnerability for themselves that’s worth about close to £10000 average per sale
Once it’s realised that some properties have been undersold by as much as 30% (it’s what one advert actually claims) it doesn’t take a genius to work out sooner or later a disgruntled beneficiary or resentful repossessed mortgagor might realise the duties an agent or executor has to them might have been compromised. At which point there is every chance of a no win no fee litigation.
With a loss leader fee structure designed to disrupt traditional fees heavily subsidised by investor cash its easy to see that cash evaporating but when it’s realised the obligation to the principal is uncertain ( who is actually responsible for the undersell) It’s the perfect recipe for a right old kerfuffle.
A firm that sells 5% of transactions will sell 50,000 properties, it will list 100,000, it will turnover £100m. £2k for every property it sells. With a demonstrable vulnerability of near £10k per transaction I can’t see internet listing services managing to pull off in 4 years a market share greater than the corporate agents managed to achieve in 30 years.
With a demonstrable vulnerability of near £10k per transaction I can’t see internet listing services managing to pull off in 4 years a market share greater than the corporate agents managed to achieve in 30 years.
Spot on. On-line is a business model based purely on statistics, limited effective service levels and can only rely on other peoples money to keep going. It has no room for eventualities that are negative .. like property low stock, bad publicity/poor customer service and as now being seen … investors realising that once share price starts to collapse, they abandon ship very quickly.
Has PB peaked? I think so as everyone can now see with the passing of time their faults and see through the smoke screens. The failure to address how many actually completed sales was the nail in the coffin. Customers and consumers programmes are highlighting this nationwide and risk of growing bad publicity will not growing market share for on-liners. As they say once at the top the only way from there is down if they don’t keep on top of the game and maintain. They now have serious threats from the likes of YOPA who have kicked PB into touch with their entangled must get a fee at all costs, not matter ideology. It will always be teetering on the edge to stay afloat, that is a fact since PB came onto the scene as a so called disruptor. All disruptors once run their course … disappear. Just look at the amount of £m’s PB have put in and still only just cover their overheads (that is still open to question). Any company that thinks it can be the only one company involved in estate agency is deluded. Any company that thinks it can stay in business by using “others money” is dead if they start to pull out. A successful company has to be self sufficient … PB is not, nor are any of the other on-liners. They all would have to hike their fees up and then they are not able to spin the cheap option which is the only way they survive today. Those agents that are doing dual rates … it will come back to bite you very hard. You are working twice or three times as hard but still the same overheads = reduction in profit. Meanwhile your competitors who stuck to their guns are creaming you. Am I wrong … look around you … the high street is still thriving and the public haven’t abandoned the high street after all this media nonsense from on-liners adding national figures to look impressive … they aren’t.
What PB has achieved is the idea of getting “others” to invest in an idea and using their propaganda to spin its share price to a point where the BRUCE Bros & Co made a fortune cashing in shares and left everyone else taking the risk and loss if it fails. This is nothing more than what happened in the 1990’s dotcom boom. An idea but no backbone to survive.
LPE’s were idiots to accept self-employed status, they are left with nothing if PB fails and didn’t they see you coming and you fell for it! Reminds me of the hard sell, no risk double glazing companies … sell a story, make some money but can’t sustain the stress for long. Ask van man!
It hasn’t done anything to revoluntionse property selling or renting. It only offers a lower fee option for less work/overheads and that says a lot about any company that is working in a service industry.
I suspect if a case got heated and serious the LPE’s would find they are carrying full culpability for any failure to act or negligence.
As they are not employed by anyone …. yes. Everything about PB I dislike. They didn’t even have the conviction with their business to employ staff and cover the benefits that a good responsible employer does. One cannot help but get the impression that Bruce Bros & Co are only in it for the money they can make, with no responsibility to anyone else .. be it LPE’s or Investors or their customers.
One day, let me tell you a story in private, that will be of great interest to you….or follow me on twitter so we can DM and I will tell you then.
BSOS23PC
Please, don’t let them leave, don’t want to go back to the boring estate agency stuff like getting people moved and, you know, actually dealing with that and all that goes with it
Im all for free speach and voicing an opinion but Dom & Duck have turned eye into a trolling platform.
As for reporting contributor to ASA when they are clearly just trying to make a modest living is just disgraceful.
This is a news site primarily for the industry individuals. And those interested in the industry. Not those who have little or no knowledge of the industry to troll others.
cyberduck46 has invited us over to his duck pond for a waddle around –
http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=PURP&share=purplebricks
Quote Ducky: Looks like Estate Agents crawling out from under their stones to show their lack of class by gloating at people losing money on their investments.
Oh dear, its true then you are losing money. Funny that I thought your investments was to make money, but not in your case. I see the share price is still going down today … money on a bigger fall by Monday morning opening.
I’m all for free speach and voicing an opinion but Dom & Duck have turned eye into a trolling platform.
You are right but it is better than watching the Simpsons. Watching Dom & Duck shoot themselves in the foot, every time. Ducks changed tactics as he can’t come up with any credible reason to support PB anymore, so goes off subject to vent his deluded anger for agents. He doesn’t get under anyone skin and that really infuriates him, what a sad life to have.
Couldn’t agree more smile please. When I see these two posters on here, I just click off the site. Time to send these vile sociopaths into exile. If we all stop biting & interacting with them they’ll go off and poison some other forum. Perhaps mumsnet will have them.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/201305/how-spot-sociopath
Property Pundit that has to be the find of the century. I haven’t stopped laughing and probably will still be in my sleep tonight. Brilliant. Everyone should read the link, absolutely nailed Ducky.
It’s deeper, darker and more disturbing than that;
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/neurosagacity/201702/how-recognize-malignant-narcissist
#notnowTerry
OK STOP PLEASE….I have to stop laughing at some point, otherwise I won’t be able to eat my dinner…and its steak tonight (guess the Double D show will now jump on me for not being a vegetarian).
Incidentally I tried to explain the Double D show to someone and they said ‘Isn’t that where you get a massive pair of t#ts on stage’.
Guess everyone needs to make their own minds up.
Above, Mr Scarff suggests that Frau Renshaw’s precis of his blog doesn’t give the true picture.
Apart from saying “Thank **** for that”, I would ask whether Mr Scarff’s own words –
“I confidently predicted that in five years time 25% of house sales would be by vendors who had opted for some form of self service. Well, we’re one year into it and it appears that “on line/hybrid” agents account for around seven percent of the market.”
– aren’t as skewed a picture of the point being made that is possible? Read the above – and you are misled that they are well over 25% of the way to their target in less than one fifth of the predicted timescale.
Which is b0ll0cks… and we all know it. Even The Quirkster, for all his billshuttery and feather-fluffery, wouldn’t try to scrape that particular barrel with such a blunt tool.
By the way – in reading the blog in its’ entirety I should point out that Mr Scarff dropped a fundamental b0ll0ck when he referred to the 2017 blog entry within which he had supposedly made the above confident prediction – only to find that it wasn’t in that one at all… but actually the one from the previous week!
The Devil is, most definitely, in the detail, Mr Scarff.
As soon as PB were mentioned, I think everyone knew the Dom and Duck show wouldn’t be far away! Loosing money, sell, sell, sell … the rot is setting in. Is it time up for PB? Time will tell and both Dom and Duck can shout as loud as they like in the meantime. Duck as a so called investor who bought shares for profit … knows the time to get out. As for Dom, soon to be redundant or take control of your future and jump ship while there are not too many people chasing the same job (the other LPE’s).
>Duck as a so called investor who bought shares for profit
As opposed to what other reason?
I manage my own investments which make up my pension. You probably leave the management of your pension to a fund manager who takes a big cut and invests in banks, mining companies, tocacco companies etc.
For me, PurpleBricks is no worse than the vast majority of the Estate Agency profession and from what I can see, those that I know the true identities of who post on here try and pass themselves off as an exception to the rest of their profession but are in fact just big hypocrites.
Wrong, wrong, wrong. You really are a sad and bitter person. Reminds me of a frustrated policitican that no-one trusts to elect. All hot air, with no grey matter between the wing nuts.
Like get a job and stop sponging off others peoples success!
Woodentop, check to see who’s creaming off the majority of the profits with your pension plan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuZvu_h3x1A
I know this particular thread is now starting to go slightly off piste, the link that has been posted above is worth looking at. This fee scandal really is huge from the life and investment industry, its just the markets are challenging and scare people and so it is easy for the ‘suited’ vultures to swoop in. Even if you aren’t confident enough to do it for yourself, be aware of what compounding does to your hard earned ££££
Can online agents grow their market share to 25% within four years?
Hello Ducky that is todays story. Wrong again, you have no idea of my pension provisions, it would may you sick with envy if you did know.
“Those agents with a foot in both camps, offering clear brand segmentation, “will emerge as the biggest winners”.”
This is what I’ve been saying, offer an upfront fee, make sure the client knows they can opt for this with the caveat in bold letters NO REFUND then when they choose the more expensive commission after sale option as most do at least they cant complain you charge too much or if the sale takes a while (or doesn’t sell) then they wont feel they were weren’t getting poor value and if you did a good job they will probably recommend you.
Don’t be afraid of the low fee upfront option, you are not going to take on that many houses verses the commission only option.
Property Paddy
Totally agree, the upfront fee for part DIY is there as an ‘Essentials or Basics online only’ product.
Once clients understand that nationally 50% of properties that come to market don’t sell, but you know your Full Service package achieves XX% (your truthful figure) completions from properties taken on….and you believe also a higher sale price because of your extra input, then it becomes a no brainer for most people.
You can still use your brand…so no division of awareness. Why pay anyone else for a licence or a separate brand presence when you can do it yourself?
A whiff of something negative about Purplebricks (after all, what do UBS know; have they ever used the magnificent purple machine to sell their doer-upper?) and, like a shark sniffing a tiny trace of blood in the water, the Dom rears up from the depths.
It’s a Groundhog Day. Yet again.
Yup- Ros can’t even hide the news within a spit’n’polish of nuts-numbing Bob Scarff’s pate without the Domster plopping out of some thin-air @r$e like an otherworldly t*rd.
Sad, really (although some think laughable) that someone with supposedly no reason to go schitzo bunny-boiler on an entire industry sector and/or anyone who has a single word to say against his #fanboy fave PurpleChums via social media resorts to persistently embarrass themselves by removing any doubt whatsoever that the exact opposite is the case.
But… if he’s yamming on at us at least he’s leaving the rest of the world alone, I suppose.
OR IS HE?
And how do you explain your obsession with PB?
Twenty thousand agents out there and you’ve got a twitter account pretty much dedicated to PurpleBricks.
#1 in the “appearing on threads with ‘PurpleBricks’ mentioned” league table.
Yet when it comes to any article on another agent doing something wrong you are notable by your absense. See http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/fraud-agent-who-marked-up-invoices-is-ordered-to-repay-1m-or-face-further-seven-years-in-jail/ for example.
Looking in the mirror again Ducky!
“And how do you explain your obsession with PB?”
I have an obsession with my industry. Always have had – always will, no doubt.
Well over a decade of banging on and on about the good – but mostly the bad and ugly – within industry forums and sites like EYE and EAT.
“Twenty thousand agents out there and you’ve got a twitter account pretty much dedicated to PurpleBricks.”
You will find references to many, many things on my Tw@tter page – including many, many Agents.
But the usual suspects keep popping up – I wonder why?
“#1 in the “appearing on threads with ‘PurpleBricks’ mentioned” league table.”
And you say that it’s ME who has the obsession? YOU’RE the f*cked-up duck that’s gone to the bother of checking that little factoid out!
That’s var-nigh #bunnyboiler territory you’re venturing into with those ickle webbed feet of yours, matey-boy.
Oh – and for the record, you’ve just made me increase my use of the term you’re claiming I AM obsessed with by a count of three – by quoting YOUR words!
Clever moov, ducky – who by the way are the bunch of apparent snake-oil salespeople I was obsessed with yesterday.
Wonder who it will be tomorrow? Watch this space…
More ranting. Must have hit a nerve.
You haven’t got a Scooby where my nerves are, ducky – and at this rate you’ve got more chance of finding them than you have of finding out how much another Agent would or could have been able to negotiate on your behalf of the NINETY SEVEN THOUSAND POUNDS VOID between your original asking price to that which Land Registry show as the ACTUAL sale price of your property.
That’s a potential 97,000 nerves I’ve just hit. And there was me thinking you only had one.
Keep it up, ducky… keep it up.
Apparently Ducky can afford to lose £97,000 on a property transaction because he saves massively by being his own fund manager. Same as he saved massively on Estate Agency fees by practically being his own Estate Agent. Oh hang on a minute I see a pattern evolving.
You should have seen the emerging pattern on the listing…
REDUCED…
REDUCED…
REDUCED…
Seriously? this could only be funnier if we knew what BFL or Karl Tatler said they’d achieve and how much they were going to charge.
#NotnowTerry
Hopefully Ducky is better at picking his shares than picking his estate agent, he might be able to recoup his £97,000, sorry £95,000 (he probably saved £2,000 on his estate agent fees).
The only nerve is yours!
I think it’s over 10k tweets on PB now for Peebee. It’s quite alarming.
You know about stocks and shares Dom, what do you make of them allowing the share price to be down 3.7% on the day going into a Friday close? That’s bound to give rise to concerns the key investors are done with propping up the price at all costs.
…over 10K – Dom? Accuracy and precision. Not your strong points.
12600 to be precise.
E
Dom. It is precisely clear you did not fully understand my retort.
You guys crack me up.
That’s ridiculous, and totally obsessive. Over 10,000? Must be an April fools joke. If he has really posted that many he can’t possibly be taken seriously on here. That’s an unstable man with an agenda.
How many comments on Connells, LSL, Arun or Countrywide?
“If he has really posted that many he can’t possibly be taken seriously on here.”
So what’s your worry? Why do you feel the need to point that out if that is actually the case?
Do you still wet the bed at night? Did your Mummy not love you?
“That’s an unstable man with an agenda.”
Says the unstable man with the agenda. At least mine’s not being guided by my Johnson.
And anyone who’s been reading my “agenda” for the last near decade knows exactly what it is.
As they have no doubt sussed yours in the short time you’ve been active.
By now you should have realiesed there must be something seriously wrong with PB, for that record.
PeeBee you do make me chuckle. A thumbs up from me.
I predict that within the next four years a ‘Full Service Agent’ model will emerge, that self perpetuates business from recommendation, Collective Marketing and social media engagement.
Good agents, doing the best for their clients and who want to join IN, will have a win,win,win situation, helping defend their businesses for years to come.
The best service that is value for money, will always win out in the end!!!
BSOS23PC
I predict in four years you will still be whining on industry forums about your rivals.
So you have set the challenge then……we’ll done domritch134, you have helped in a decision I was making this morning.
Note this date in your diary and come back in four years time….actually maybe come back in two years time!!!
The market share for online/call centre/hybrid agents will struggle to get to this mark once people realise that get what you pay for. If PB ever delve into the NSNF area, their market share will stumble big time. The lack of transparency is what keeps them going. I met a couple on a viewing yesterday who were considering using PB, until i pointed out that they would be paying them whether they sold or not, they genuinely though it was no sale no fee like proper estate agents.
Came across this yesterday as well, on an appraisal I was on.
Of course you did agent V, it does seem very strange all these coincidences you have.
Strangei isn’t it….telling the truth!
AgentV, I came across a website the other day which was claiming a property had just completed when unless I am mistaken it completed in early May 2017. Other ones listed as “just completed” too when the average person would tend to think this was not the case.
If I’m not mistaken this website was yours.
Nice to see you believe in telling the truth.
Yes Cyberduck, of course, I am sure it was mine…. I deliberately did it to deceive everyone, because that is the terrible person that I am….always looking to rip people off and deceive….make as much money out of everyone as I possibly can….because that is what all estate agents do, according to you isn’t it!!!
Now there’s a quote for you to bring forward in the future….you can even take parts of it out of context if you want so it looks even worse if you do that.
You personally try and attack good people on this site all the time, people you don’t know, but you obviously get a real kick out of it.
If you knew many people who come and comment on this site, you would realise there are many good honest business people who just want to do an honest job for a fair price, whilst you support a company that is just out to make as much money as it possibly can in any way that it can.
As a fellow human being with but one life to lead, under threat of losing his livelihood because of pure greed, I have no respect at all for you anymore!
misanthropist – That’s as close as i can find for you Mr Duck.
Are you really that misconceived that you consider all Estate Agents are robbing, stealing, greedy, cheating lying, dishonest, corrupt (I could go on but i can’t be bothered).
If it was in my interest I could show you hundreds and hundreds and hundreds if not thousands of thank you letters/cards, that i have received over the years from very, very grateful clients and their family members…(and I have enjoyed many a night a soupcon tipsy on the wine/beer given to me and my staff as a thank you) but I really can’t be bothered with you.
What i find really incredulous is your ambivalence…..You have this total hatred for Estate Agents and yet this love affair with PB…..It is pretty weird…after all in their adverts, I believe they claim to be estate agents or if not indicate that they are (more smoke and mirrors).
Maybe it is an age thing….you know the old ‘Victor Meldrew’ scenario, I know looking at my ol’ man he has changed a little from a happy chappy to a miserable git as he has got older and he doesn’t stop moaning (maybe you are my Dad! Jeez I hope note)
As for the pension situation Mr Duck,(see below) I don’t have one but I do have 10 properties that will be paid off in under 6 years (when I retire). I stick to what I know. And before you give me a hard time about exploiting people that can’t afford property. 6 of the ten tenants have been in my properties for over 8 years and because they are good tenants that look after my property and pay on time I haven’t increased the rent once…a quick calculation if I did, I would probably be about £450 pcm better off…What a horrible, nasty, money grabbing estate agent I am!!
AgentV,
Are you saying that in your case it wasn’t on purpose but in everybody elses it is on purpose?
http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/two-complaints-against-agents-informally-resolved-by-advertising-watchdog/
Clearly these people need more than an informal resolution when you don’t have the first clue whether it was deliberate or not.
Believe what you want to……you are trying to go down the route of personal attacks against the good guys…carry on indulging in your bitterness.
I respected your right to stand up for what you clearly believed in…but I really don’t care anymore.
But I am not going to debate with you when you are trying to make personal attacks against good people.
So in answer to your question …..whatever!
BSOS23PC
So agentv you have been misleading the public with false advertising.
This is pretty damning for you with your crusade agenda against mis leading advertising. When you are doing the very thing.
So very childish Dom.
dompritch134
whatever you want to believe…whatever
Interesting…
There are ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTY SEVEN search results relating to one company alone when “ASA” is included in the advanced search – how come NONE of those have made your very, very, shortlist of examples?
PeeBee, I think you missed the point but that’s nothing new.
Try reading through again and you’ll see why that example was provided.
AgentV understands.
No, ducky – I haven’t missed any point whatsoever.
Like you – I will load my gun accordingly to suit the target.
Mine’s full of #duckshot; yours? – badly packed with hot, hateful, air.
cyberduck46
I understand you are a bitter person that tries to twist everything that anyone ever says against them. You obviously go to a lot of trouble to keep records for that very purpose…. whoever it is you are having a go at.
My one thing I have always known about who to trust or not to trust in business and relationships….tell someone something sensitive about yourself and just see if they ever use it against you.
Everyone who is human makes mistakes, and if you make a mistake and get away with it without any serious consequences, like someone being hurt, you are relieved. However if you carry on making those same mistakes again and again because you believe it is gaining you an advantage…then that is a different matter entirely…..and of course we all know who does that don’t we!!!
Ducky what the hell has this got to do with todays story? You really do typify a TROLL. “A person who hijacks a discussion for their own personal agenda”. Time you grew up.
AgentV. WE all know how well you have championed estate agency for many years. Keep up the good work. Ignore the git, he’s trying to pick a fight with anyone he can … its his double standard sick mind. I think its safe to say that just about everyone knows that and actually find his childish torrents entertaining, what next will he Trump up?
Thank you Woodentop for your kind comments.
BSOS23PC
Thank you Ros for picking this up. I would urge your readers to read my actual words as well as this pick ‘n mix version.
If they only read yours, then In at least a couple of important areas they will go away with the wrong interpretation of my views.
Thank you. Have a great Friday.
I agree Bob – your article really needs to be read in full to be fully understood and appreciated.
You are both right. This pick and mix version (as you say) doesn’t tell the reader that you are selling a service. You need to read the blog for that to become clear.
Timing is everything. The online model took off on the back of a boom market, so these businesses were flattered by the results in this type of market and of course opened clients eyes to the power of the internet. It also was well received as a way to save huge sums of money paid to the ‘over priced estate agents who do nothing for their money’ . How often did we hear that the internet sells houses…it certainly helps the process massively…but and has made sure that the onliners have got a foot hold.
Some of these new businesses have been VERY committed and well funded to getting their name out there fast and showed the importance of a unified marketing message, which basically is about cheap, but its still the real deal, just the lite version. They made huge progress as most of the market comprises independents and a badly managed corporates. Remember, the public on the High Street don’t know who Countrywide are…but they know the million different businesses and brands and in so many areas, these businesses fight each other and therefore weaken themselves and often spawning new challenger brands for the ambitious that fall out of those businesses.
We are now far enough into this idea and the market has now turned. The real test for the new online call centre businesses is whether their message is out there enough for the long term that they can continue build their business without the continued cash burn of TV and radio advertising. There is the wonderful dichotomy there, the new businesses have only made progress off the old advertising media…but as we all know, things are changing fast.
PB will need to make a proper profit soon or will split into different businesses in different countries; do enough of the public really know about Yopa or is it only those in the industry who have a real opinion? Will Rightmove have to morph into an online estate agency/marketplace rather than just portal!! (I have challenged a certain commercial director on that one and reading between the lines, that is their blue sky thinking scenario for 5 years in the future and I would guess has been given more discussion than they would confess to. Right now they can’t afford to upset their paymasters, you and me).
So the future: 95% of the onliners will be out of business within 18 months. PB share price will be re stated lower and the one area I can’t get my head around is the USA biz. If pushed, I would guess that biz won’t survive, but I have a sneaky feeling Oz will! There will be a handful of mergers, but the reality is what good will is being bought, the money is better spent optimizing their usp and seo. Up to 30% of the lettings businesses will close or be taken over for their portfolio (many set up on the back of sales to milk the market and pick up on houses that didn’t sell but are not viable as a stand alone) and in some cases will damage their sales business at the same time. Up to 20% of sales offices will suffer the same fate.
Just an opinion and remember 84.2% of my stats are based on the spur of the moment research
P-Daddy
That was excellently and succinctly put…I have some information you might be very interested in….have you got a contact email?