City analysts at an investment bank which has been paid by Zoopla (see Company Specific Disclosures paragraph in the report here) have produced a ‘flash’ note claiming that Agents’ Mutual has lost momentum and that “there is no news on the conversion rates of ‘letters of intent’ to contracts”.

The update by Jefferies on Zoopla says: “Perhaps like Google, Agents’ Mutual is finding that trying to compete with Rightmove and Zoopla is harder than they expected.”

It also claims that Agents’ Mutual has lowered the barriers to entry, claiming that in the previous marketing pack, Gold members had to provide a £2,000 loan note.

It says this has now been reduced to £1,000 per branch. The interest rate on the loan notes is 7%, but was 10% in May.

In fact, it is no secret that Agents’ Mutual has had different Gold membership offers, with the earliest agents being offered the highest interest rates in return for larger sums.

Jefferies also questions where agents’ logos are on the Agents’ Mutual literature, wondering if agents are losing faith.

It concludes: “Better the portal you know than the portal you don’t. Agents may complain about ARPA [revenue per advertiser] rates, but in our view the waning of momentum at Agents’ Mutual suggests to us that, in the cold light of day, agents appreciate that the major portals provide value for money and a very big marketing bang for their buck.”

It goes on: “With housing transactions in the secondary market cooling, now is not the time, in our view, for agents to sever ties with the most powerful, tried and tested routes to market for an untried and untested alternative.”

The note – which seems to be aimed more at agents than at investors – does admit there is a risk to what it is saying.

It says: “The biggest risks to our estimates are the loss of customers and a slowing growth rate in ARPA. If Agents’ Mutual is successful this will impact our estimates on a one-year view, before issues around restrictive trade practices are settled.”

At the bottom of the note, Jefferies discloses that within the past 12 months it has “received compensation from investment banking services from Zoopla” and that within the past 12 months, Zoopla has been a client of Jefferies.

A spokesperson for Agents’ Mutual told Eye: “We note the speculative and somewhat desperate comments in Jefferies’ latest missive.

“We would like to confirm the position regarding our Gold membership schemes.

“The current Gold membership offer is the fourth in a series. Following the success of each offer, the rates and discounts of the next one have reduced, reflecting the progressively lower risk involved for agents joining as our proposition has gained momentum and become unstoppable.

“We have also progressively reduced the amount required to be invested to become a Gold member to enable more agents to support us with pre-launch funding.

“More than £2m has been added to the amount gathered in the first Gold membership offer which provides additional launch marketing firepower.

“The 4,000 offices mark for Gold and Silver members was passed at the end of September and we continue to grow membership.

“The fact that so many agents have been prepared to sign five-year contracts, in most cases before even the portal brand name was known, shows the profound dissatisfaction among agent firms of all sizes with the duopoly operating in the portal market.

“The announcement of our live date on January 26 and the access we can now give agents to view their new portal and to understand the scale of our marketing and advertising plans to support it are increasing our momentum.

“Thousands of members all over the UK are mobilising to play their part in the launch by reducing the valuable profile they give to other portals and by putting their considerable local promotional capabilities behind the portal they own and control and which works for them.

“Any further announcements about our progress will be made at a time and in a manner which benefits Agents’ Mutual and it members rather than in response to claims made by our rivals and others with a vested interest in supporting them.”

Jefferies helped advise Zoopla on its stock market flotation in June, with its shares priced at 220p.

Yesterday the shares ended at 193.70p.

The Jefferies note is here