Confidence in house prices hit a three-year low in October, Halifax has warned.
The lender’s latest Housing Market Confidence Tracker, which looks at the net percentage balance of consumers who think prices will rise or fall, recorded the largest drop in optimism since the poll began in 2011, declining 14 points since March 2016 to +42.
Optimism was at +63 this time last year and the lowest was in June 2013 at +40.
Despite this, polling as part of the index construction showed 57% still expect the average UK price to be higher in a year’s time, more than three times the proportion who expect a lower average.
A third of respondents felt that the next 12 months will be a good time to either buy or sell – down by 6 points from the beginning of the year.
Selling sentiment is now at its lowest since September 2013 with a fall from +31 in March 2016 to +9. This is still, however, well above the lowest recorded point of -63 at the end of 2011.
Whilst the fall in the optimism index comes after a period that included the EU referendum, nearly half (49%) expect that the vote to withdraw from the EU will make no difference to house prices in the next 12 months. One in five thought house prices will be higher as a result of the referendum, whilst 25% think they will be lower.
Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, said: “Optimism in the housing market has taken a fall in recent months, with many people now expecting a general slowdown in the market and no, or little, change in house prices over the coming year.
“This sentiment is consistent with recent findings from the Halifax House Price Index which show that prices are still growing, but to a lesser extent.”
Comments (2)
How about removing SDLT for first time buyers? and re-looking at the 3% surcharge for 2nd+ property buyers. Developers are paying this tax too – was it really designed to put people off renovation? My son was looking at buying in London (a one bed flat @ £420,000) with the assistance of Help to Buy. So the HtB would give him £120k but he’d pay £11k in SDLT. Buy a lot of carpets for £11k (please the Belgians anyway) or furniture, white goods etc
Sentiment on the downturn, retailers profits falling, pound falling, prices increasing, optimism dissipating. I hope and hope these aren’t all the first early signs of a post referendum recession. The Brexit vote worried lots of people…..because they were told they should be worried about the consequences. What do worried people do…..nothing….they tighten their belts, sit on the fence and wait and see. We need some ‘SO’…Stimulated Optomism. Come on government are you listening? Act now in the autumn statement, before a recession becomes self fulfilling.
My suggestion is to allow transfer of mortgages from one property to another to be simplified, without onerous checks, for people already maintaining payments without problem. Make ‘sideways movement of homeowners’ easy again. What about if you only pay the stamp duty on the difference in value between the property you are selling and the one you are buying as well….as a temporary holiday for a year or so. If you sell your £300,000 house and move to a £320,000 one you only pay 5% of £20,000 I.e. £1,000.
What about other PIE readers suggestions?