A new report advising investors says that Agents’ Mutual’s momentum is “solid”, forecasting a potential sting in the tail for Zoopla which could risk a further “step-down” in membership.
William Packer, of Exane BNP Paribas, concentrates in his latest report on Agents’ Mutual’s membership drive to reach 7,500 for its OnTheMarket portal.
The recruitment drive centres around the latest letter of intent sent out to non-member agents and yesterday evening, chief executive Ian Springett told EYE: “Our approach to increasing membership allows agents to contract now or to confirm their support for Agents’ Mutual with a view to contracting once we have assembled support from a total of 7,500 offices.
“We estimate that recruiting this number will put us in the number 2 position by available UK stock nationally.
“There are many areas where OTM is already number 2 and many others where just a small number of independent offices joining us would propel us into that position.
“Agent support continues to grow daily both in terms of contracted offices and letters of intent and we remain confident that it is just a matter of time before we overtake Zoopla.”
He said many agents would be surprised at just how small the gap is between OTM and Zoopla in terms of inventory.
City analyst Packer said in his report that Agents’ Mutual membership is currently at about 5,300 offices, “with a supportive membership base, demonstrating resilience eight months into launch, against initial market expectations of a swift demise”.
Packer went on: “We also believe there is a misunderstanding around AM’s growth strategy. We understand AM is focused on driving take-up of its latest ‘letter of intent’ once a total take-up of 7.5k is reached (ie 5.3k members plus 2.2k signees).
“However, we note agents are not legally committed to convert upon the target being reached, adding more uncertainty.
“All in, this in our view brings a risk of another step-down in Zoopla membership during 2016.”
The report says the letter of intent “includes a non-binding pledge for the agent to become a full member of AM once over 7,500 estate agent branches are committed to the platform.
“In our view, Agents’ Mutual have pursued this strategy to overcome collective action challenges at the local level (eg, agents on a local high street would prefer to leave the incumbent portals en masse rather than piecemeal.”
The report goes on: “AM plan to activate their latest letter of intent if they achieve over 7,500 members.
“In our view, this brings a tail risk to Zoopla, as the primary cancellation candidate under the one other portal rule.”
Packer’s report says Rightmove is still well placed to gain further traffic share, underpinning its pricing power.
The report also comments favourably on the Property Software Group, which has about 40% market share.
It says PSG’s new Moveit product is attractive, offering upselling opportunities to estate agents.
The report adds: “We view PSG as a key strategic asset in UK property internet services and a potential takeout target for the portals.”
The report says: “While Rightmove and Zoopla currently offer important B2B features for their estate agent client base, there are substantial gaps in the product offering. One of the most significant is the estate agency software industry.”
Springett said last night: “We are pleased to see some clarity emerging about the available property stock carried by Zoopla.
“It may be a surprise to some agents how small the gap now is which OTM has to close to overtake them and claim the number 2 position in terms of UK available property stock.”
The full Exane report is here
Comments (41)
Firstly I am going to admit I am on OTM and would love it to do well because of the same issues most OTM members realise, that is, without them both Zoopla and R/M would increase fees year on year without them.
To date, I am having my best ever year ever, now I am not naive enough to say that it is all town to OTM and to be honest I would probably say that OTM’s leads are just a little bit better than Zooplas.
However, In a town where probably 30% of agents are on OTM I have seen my agency climb from 7/8th in stock and New Instructions to a very competitive 3rd (and gaining).
Again I know this is not all down to OTM but what it has taught me is that I don’t need Zoopla.
To my knowledge I have not yet lost a single instruction because of not being on it, a good sales pitch and informing clients of the pitfalls of ‘Internet based Agents’ has served me well along with not bullshutting clients (as Peebee would put it).
I for one will be sticking with OTM for the foreseeable future until I see a decline in my current position.
the message? aka jonnyspivboy! ….once again, remind me of the part that you actually play in our industry as I seek to understand some of the complete nonsense that you post.
We don’t normally get involved in the comments on stories but as certain of the people on here repeatedly raise this issue I am going to make an exception today.
Whatever some of you may wish to think or to allege, this site is not owned or ‘sponsored’ by Agents Mutual/OnTheMarket. Never has been. The sole owners of the site and company are myself, Ros Renshaw and John Brassington.
Agents Mutual/OnTheMarket began their marketing at about the same time as we launched Property Industry Eye and they were one of our first advertising clients. They booked space for an extended period of time and they continue advertising with us. They do so on commercial terms that are comparable to our other long-term clients. They are a very long way from being our highest-spending client.
Both Zoopla and Rightmove have repeatedly been invited to advertise on Property Industry Eye. That neither has done so is entirely their decision. They are always welcome to do so.
We cover the ongoing portals story as even-handedly as possible. None of them has any influence over what we do or do not report. The integrity of our news is paramount. We report news from Rightmove, Zoopla and OnTheMarket as it comes to us. Sometimes we can carry responses from them to a particular story. Often as not they make no comment at all and that means we cannot always make a story appear as ‘balanced’ as we or some of you might like. That’s just the way it is.
Without fear or favour we will always report the news, positive or negative, in respect of any organisation and that includes all three main portals.
Where we report that a body or organisation has published something relating to the portals we always try to include links to those reports so that readers can find out more if they wish to.
Oh and by the way – If we did not believe in being as even handed and objective as possible in our reporting then some of the comments made about us and the site would have been taken down long ago.
I hope this makes matters clear once and for all.
Strange thing is the very same people are not reading and posting complaints on EAT that it is heavily biased in support of Zoopla and very much aggressively and personally anti OTM.
If readers don’t like the subjects covered by Eye, disagree with the editorial balance why bother hauling up here just to whinge?
Even if Ros, Nick and John were heavily biased quite frankly they are allowed to be, it is their site. There is no law that says they have to be balanced and independent. If disgruntled readers want an alternative news forum that is Goldilocks perfect to their own taste they are perfectly welcome start one.
Yes, but while you might not be officially sponsored, they must make up a huge percentage off of your advertising revenue – that’s basically sponsorship!
Please explain that. I view it as a symbiotic relationship that works primarily for the readership, thus for advertisers and therefore the site owners.
Some people will never be satisfied with what looks to me like a very clear explanation. Which part of ‘they are a very long way from being our highest spending client’ did you miss?
I hear the arguments from both sides of this – and not much has changed on that front. I am by no means a fence sitter or doubting Thomas and have no problems nailing my colours to the mast on this one.
I dearly hope OTM works and does become a serious contender to RM, anyone paying RM fees every month will understand that point.
Surely the proof of any business expenditure should be based on return on investment and, although it is still very early days we have seen an increase in traffic from OTM. I personally do not have a problem understanding the timescales involved when launching a new portal, did the industry expect a new portal to go from a standing start to No.1 or replace No.2 overnight ?
I hope OTM gets the support it needs and RM has to reduce it’s fees to remain competitive.
A further 2200 agents is required for http://www.OnTheMarket.com to become the number 2 portal, this equates to roughly one in five non OTM agents to sign up.
Shall we review this from a paying customer of portals point of view?
Have the Agents who have now got OTM and one other portal suffered considerably from dropping one or other of the duopoly?
Has any agent on OTM lost position against their local competition?
Has either main portal customer base gone up?
Have relationships between Agents and portals improved or deteriorated?
Have online agents been controlled by OTM?
I just don’t get why everyone is so het up about AM RM & Z they are what they are propaganda machines to self promote themselves and in the process our little slice of the world for a fee, if anything its us the agents that are somewhat to blame always ready to jump on the next wagon rolling along.
If everyone pulled away from all three people would still find your business by reputation and service we’ve made them stronger and given them the power, we are the customers yet allow these business to dictate how we run ours??????? lunatics taking over the asylum me thinks.
Good for you GPL your loyalty is admirable, however my experience is that since the start of this process we have only completed on one rental transaction, and the volume of inquiries from OTM is only 25% of Zoopla who are of-course No.2 in the rankings, I have no idea how or if OTM are getting people to sign a letter of intent, when we ask clients if they have heard of OTM 90% have said no ! Still here, still standing, yes. however I bet if you took a pole of members and asked if they could leave would they, I would bet 75% would go, the promise of undermining the big two has not happened, infact Rightmove have become more powerful, well done OTM ..
When Rightmove & Zoopla started down this Online Shop Window markarkey….. did they deliver market leading results? No! …..and are either of them value for money today?…. No! Do they make excessive profits for their shareholders, directors etc…. as that dog would say…. Ooowaah Yes!
Is OnTheMarket.com value for money mid/long term and for our industry? Yes! ….. and I can judge that as I am a paying customer.
You can’t judge what you have no experience of it? ….I do, I can.
NEWSFLASH! ….. OnTheMarket.com
Still here….. despite the “will never last/never work brigade”.
Suck it up!
How bizarre to criticise people who only post about subjects they presumably feel strongly about!
Indeed….
Yet 5/12 of the stories on the first page of PIE have no comment at all.
SO COMMENT ON THEM!
Oh – hang on – they don’t involve Zoopla so you have no ‘views’ to offer – never do…
…funny, that.
Agree Smile – but there’s much to generate enough disbelief in bystanders to comment.
Propaganda is all well and good when trying to pull wool over people’s eyes, but if OTM want to be seen as credible in any way shape or form, they’re going to have to start posting some actual figures.
PIE’s sponsoring of their rhetoric is admirable (please not sarcasm), but something concrete is going to have to be mentioned soon.
Does Rosalind not have any contacts at RM or Z? It appears not.
The fact that some contributors only post on certain stories really waters down their credibility in my opinion.
Could have guessed who the first two posters would be and the theme of their comments.
I have no problem with for or against arguments but some people (on both sides) just like to chip away with negative / insulting comments without adding any real debate. Just looking to point score.
At least try and move the conversation on. Otherwise you are just seen as the office worker (we have all had one) constantly moaning in the corner no matter what, so nobody takes you seriously and they become a joke themselves.
Sounds like to work of the Office for National Statistics… 😉
So back in May, when OTM was 100 days old, the same William Packer, of Exane BNP Paribas told us that membership was growing rapidly, up 12% month on month… http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/our-first-100-days-and-its-all-looking-good-says-onthemarket/
And in the same press release, we were told that OTM had “recruited over 800 branches since the start of this year, boosting its membership to above 5,000”.
If we look back to January 26th when OTM started, they told us they had on board 2200 firms and 4600 offices… http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/leap-faith-hell-ride-onthemarket/
Now i’m no mathematician, but can someone tell me how a 12% month on month increase for over 4.5 months on a base of 5400 gets to 5300, because I am struggling here?
Good point. However, in fairness to OTM how many people are surprised we are discussing if they have 5400 or 5300 offices after 7-8 months? They have a long way to go but every agent signed up, every new consumer click and every day they are in business is an agent, consumer and day longer than many expected.
Same old, same old . ..
Same old, same old . . . why is it that the only time danny and ehenderson post is when there is an opportuniy to rubbish OTM? It works for us.
If this is proper journalism, why does property industry eye not get some sort of input from Zoopla?
this is shameful propaganda put out by a business which is clearly losing customers. They reported 5500 offices if you months ago, and now they are at 5300. of course they can say that new people are joining every week, but what they fail to mention is that existing customers are leaving every week too.
Dear EHenderson. I expect you are perfectly pleasant away from these pages but I’m afraid that on here you come across as a deeply bitter and angry person. The foam-flecked bile you repeatedly direct at OTM is too extreme to be taken seriously. Have a word with that Mr Corbyn fellow. He’ll give you some tips about how to influence people by calm and reasoned argument.
EHenderson…. Ditto to you re comment to Danny…. let it goooooo….. OnTheMarket.com are here to stay. Take some pills, lie down in a dark room ….and just accept it. It’s another day, another week, another month and OnTheMarket. com is still here.
What that tells me is they have signed very agents since they launched …
It’s annoying for you isn’t it….. OnTheMarket.com…. still here…. not going away!
Standing still rather than still standing. 🙂
yes you are Digital Expert
Standing is standing – regardless of what it is preceded or followed by – even you can’t argue that fact.